In many ways it is a difficult match to write on, as there is a feeling it has all been done (and said) before. This is the third time in just eight Test matches that England have salvaged a draw from near certain defeat on the last day; asking their strong lower order to see them over the line. With this in mind I am going to use this blog to put to bed the issue which has dominated the first three blogs on this Test series. I promise that this is the last time I give it such prominence, and equally assure that this will be a broader discussion than the usual "we need five bowlers" format.
However, that is the place we will start, and a quick examination of the recent evidence will offer some support. Of the three matches where England have given their captain only four strike bowlers to play with, the opposition has been able to amass a total that allows a declaration with nearly a day and a half left to play. This means that the best England have been able to hope for going into the last day of two matches has been to draw, and this is no longer good enough because, Test match cricket is a far more even playing field than it was ten years ago.
In the days of Atherton and Hussain, the three Lions couldn't eat at the top table and as a result, two draws against a side with the talent of this South African team would be considered a major success. But England's rise has coincided with a slight decline in two of it's major rivals, largely down to the retirement of two pairs of all time great bowlers. Alan Donald and Shaun Pollock, Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne were four players who were world class whoever they were against, but often saved their very best for England. Obviously they were not alone, but they tormented the England sides at the end of the last century and the start of this one and they have proved difficult to replace.
This may seem like an odd thing to say, particularly given the South Africans boast the number one rated bowler in the world in Dale Steyn. But this is a discussion for England, and unlike his predecessors he has rarely shown us his best. Add to this the fact that England now has a much stronger all round line up than they did in those bleak days and, as shown by the recent successes over the Australians (who did boast Warne and McGrath in '05) at home and in South Africa and nobody would suggest that England haven't got the talent to challenge the top sides in the world.
So why then are we letting an average South African side dominate us. The ICC may say they are they were the top side in the world going into this series, but their top 6 has two players in Duminy and Prince who have looked like walking wickets, a spinner who can't turn it and a seam attack which hasn't looked fully fit until England's second innings in this Test. In layman's terms, they have been there for the taking...but they are not only still in the series, they have been 2 balls away from leading it.
From England's point of view, the lineup they have been selecting is actually tuned to save a draw rather than force a win. By hopefully trying to extend the time they can bat for they are limiting the number of wicket takers at their disposal, and everyone knows you need wickets more than you need runs to win a Test Match.
The theory is of course sound, but there is a practical problem that lies in a batting lineup which is failing to reach its potential. Just as in the summer, there aren't enough match winning 3 figure innings out there. England have mustered two this series, which came in the same innings and sure enough they won the Test match. South Africa have spread their four centuries over the four innings of the first and third Test matches, both games they would have expected to win going into the last day.
As a result, England find themselves trapped in an unwelcome situation this winter. They can either increase the likelihood of victory but make these match saving performances less likely, or hope to make losing as unlikely as possible and try and pick up a win when the opposition have an off day as in the second test.
Make no mistake, I expect the current selection format to be the one England stick with over the tour to Bangladesh, but I feel it is one that belongs int he days when England didn't believe they were real contenders. If winning the success of 2005 and the reclaiming of the Ashes this summer don't make them think of themselves (and select like) as a side that can defeat the best in the world then I don't know what will.
