Monday 10 May 2010

Seeds don't always Flower

The ICC doesn't have the best track record for hosting events in the West Indies. In 2007 the World Cup was robbed of the Caribbean flavour that it demanded by a mixture of bureaucratic blunders turning away the locals, a farcical final in near pitch black conditions and the untimely death of Pakistan head coach Bob Woolmer. Fortunately, the sport's carnival format hasn't been denied the carnival atmosphere, and the only place the ICC have been made to look foolish this time around is in the seeding.
In their defence it is difficult to find fault with the decisions they made. With the sub-continent expected to dominate once more, England and Australia weren't seeded for the World T20. England's T20 record only bests minnows Bangladesh, while Australia were famously dumped out of the competition in the group stages the last time the event was held. Yet it is these two sides who are comfortably dispatching every opposition put in front of them. Only Duckworth Lewis has taken points off England while Australia remain undefeated with just one game remaining in the Super Eights.

For both teams, part of their somewhat shocking success is the nature of T20 itself. Unlike Test or even ODI, the demand isn't for extended periods of dominance, merely correctly timed assertions of force. The rewards and penalties for the outcome of each ball in the shortest format of the game are far more keenly felt, meaning that any underdog, no matter how little fancied can have that over of brilliance or fortune which bring home the prized scalp.
The tournament also places a high value on momentum. The high turnover of games means that the winning habit and feel good factor are easier to maintain than on a long tour. If evidence is needed think only how Pakistan won the trophy last time out after a horror start.

There is also another factor that no other team in the competition has, spurring on these players to perform. With both sides looking unsettled at Test level, and England especially showing consistent inconsistency at ODI level, there are spots up for grabs. Four months ago Eoin Morgan said in an interview that everything he did from that point to the announcement of the touring party was designed to get him on that plane in some capacity, and there is no doubt that many others will be thinking the same.
For some like Kevin Pieterson, places are assured, but what of the Morgans, the Steve Smiths and the Tim Bresnans? All will be eyeing up weakness in their own team's, desperate to make a spot undeniably theirs. Playing any role in a World T20 victory, although far from guaranteeing their place would certainly give them some pedigree to bargain with, and perhaps this is why both sides have produced such strong team performances over the last few days. While sides like India and South Africa have floundered under the expectations of trying to win the tournament, their English and Australian counterparts have had one eye on simply using this event as a stepping stone. Perhaps proof if ever it was required that there is still life in the old dog of Test cricket yet.

With all this and their current form in mind, it is difficult to predict anything other than an Ashes appetiser of a final; an early mind game for the players to sweat through and the fans to enjoy. It will give little more than bragging rights, but there isn't a sports fan alive who doesn't enjoy bragging....

Equally, trying to genuinely predict T20 matches is like trying to pick the seeds for a T20 tournament; arduous, long winded, and despite logically processing all the evidence almost certainly doomed to failure. Put your money on a Pakistan v Sri Lanka final.