2010 Ashes Predictions (Part 2)

In part 2 of this article, I’ll be turning my attention to the Australians, who despite their recent successes over a Pakistan team which exists in perpetual turmoil have a few selection headaches of their own in the bowling department and are looking for a fresh spearhead since the retirement of Brett Lee.

Shane Watson: Although Phil Hughes announced himself with a bang in South Africa before the Ashes last year, since replacing him Watson has barely put a foot wrong. In many ways he is a natural replacement for Hayden; a bully of an opener, who enjoys hitting straight past the bowler and pulling off the front foot. A trademark of that decade of Aussie dominance was that they regularly scored at over 4 an over and Watson gives them impetus at the start as well as an added option with the ball, although injury has made him less able to contribute in this area.

Simon Katich: After a torrid 2005 in the middle order he remodeled himself as an opener and has been a lynchpin in the Australian side since his return. His recent gritty innings have highlighted his mental toughness and he is a batsman who rarely gifts his wicket away. He is the perfect foil to his partner, happy to play Langer to Watson’s Hayden and England must look to dismiss him early because once settled he will dig in for the long haul.

Ricky Ponting: If anything the retirement of so many around him seems to have made him hungrier. After losing another series in England he will be looking for his side come out with all the fight they showed in 2006/7 and he will be at the heart of everything. Still impressive with the bat and electric in the field, he is one of those players who never seems to drift in a game. Questions still remain over his captaincy; years of being able to throw the ball to McGrath and Warne mean that he isn’t as tactically astute as other captains with similar experience may be, but make no mistake, he will be fired up and dangerous. England will be hoping the ball swings early in his innings as he remains prone to falling over and being trapped LBW.

Michael Clarke: Recent trouble in his personal life hasn’t distracted him, and he was named man of the match in the first Test against New Zealand after a splendid century. Many wouldn’t have played in his circumstances, let alone performed to that level and the fact that he did tells you everything you need to know about this world class performer. He was a thorn in England’s side last year and nobody would be shocked if he was again.

Michael Hussey: Mr Cricket completes the experienced 3, 4, 5 that England must dismiss cheaply if they are to win Test matches, and he mirrors his fellow no.5 Paul Collingwood for mental steel. He loves to beat England and he has regained his form after a shakey start to the 2009 Ashes. He loves a personal battle as well as a team one, and having struggled against Swann in England will be looking to redress the balance in front of fans who adore his passion for the sport.

Marcus North: With so many stellar names ahead of him, North is almost a forgotten man overseas, but in Australia they recognise his value. He not only boasts a fine average with the bat, but along with Michael Clarke provides more than adequate backup spin should Hauritz be unselected or ineffective and he is a stunning gully fielder.

Brad Haddin: When Adam Gilchrist retired, many expected Australia to chop and change their wicket keepers, but Haddin had waited so long he clearly didn’t want to miss the opportunity and has retained the position as long as he has been fit. With his lightening hands and aggressive batting it is easy to see why, and the only question mark is over his fingers. He has broken 3 in the last year, which is a shock given how cleanly he takes the ball.

Mitchell Johnson: The smiling assassin struggled initially in England, but was still at the top end of the wicket taking statistics come the end of the series. His slinging action will always be somewhat scattergun, but he is capable of producing wicket taking deliveries in the middle of woeful spells, and his slower ball is a constant danger. In addition, if England’s bowlers have had to toil agains the top order and allow themselves mental or physical lapses, then his aggressive batting can quickly alter the complexion of a game.

Nathan Hauritz: Hauritz has taken his time adapting to international cricket, but seems now to understand his role with both bat and ball and weighed in heavily with both against Pakistan. There is a chance that his duel with Kevin Pieterson, whose recent troubles with left-arm spinners has been well documented could be the pick of the series, with both fancying their chances against the other.

Ben Hilfenhaus: Hilfenhaus was a revelation in the 2009 Ashes. Despite his size and obvious power and strength, it was his precision and accuracy that ensured his possession of the new ball when Mitchell Johnson’s radar went haywire. He took 4 for 16 on his return for Tasmania but aggravated a knee injury which he has been battling with. If fit, his consistency of line and length make him the nearest replacement Australia have to Glenn McGrath; not only a wicket taker in his own right, but a dream for the bowler at the other end in virtue of how much pressure he applies with economical figures.

Doug Bollinger: As with England, this spot is something of a head-scratcher for the Australian selectors. Since Brett Lee’s sad retirement through injury they need a new spearhead. Five years ago that looked like being Shaun Tait, but mental frailties put his career on hold, and although he is back in the one day lineup it is unlikely he would be risked in a Test series where so much is at stake. Although Peter Siddle can still be called upon, Bollinger has impressed in a variety of conditions since being called up in January 2009. He took his first ODI five wicket haul in tough conditions on the tour of India, and excelled in all formats against both Pakistan and in the recent series against New Zealand. Although they already have a prominent left armer in Johnson, Bollinger is a different proposition, more inclined to kiss the turf than go for the jugular. From an English point of view, Graeme Swann will be hoping that he does play, with the additional rough created by two left armers sure to aid him against right handed batsman.

It seems fair to say that for both selection committees it is the bowling department that causes the greatest worry. That said I would rather be in the Australian camp. They can be relatively safe in the knowledge that any combination of Johnson, Bollinger, Hilfenhaus, Siddle and Watson has the ability to cause England problems, and with Tait and Clint McKay on the sidelines they boast a strength in depth of talent and experience in this department that England can only currently dream of. Australia’s ability to replace first choice seam in cases of injury or form loss may well play a vital role in the outcome of the series.

With all this in mind I expect Australia to win the series 3-1. Watch this space.

2010 Ashes Predictions (Part 1)

With the Ashes now just over 6 months away, writers around the world are dipping their toes into the unruly world of Ashes starting line ups, praying that a star player remain in form and injury free, and that no upstart wildcard ruins their predictions. To act as a bridge into a greater Australian focus for this blog, in this first of a 2 part article I'll be examining England's likely lineup.

Andrew Strauss: Has flourished with the bat since being given the added responsibility of captaincy and will be well rested after not touring Bangladesh and not being involved in England's short term plans. If anything a lack of cricket may be a concern compared to others but expect him to lead from the front in Australia.

Alistair Cook: Has rediscovered form with good performances in South Africa and now as captain in Bangladesh. Shows a startling amount of maturity for one so young and this may be the year that makes him. With so much experience already behind him including a miserable tour over here 4 years ago, England will be hoping that he and Strauss can regularly produce 3 figure opening partnerships against the Aussies.

Jonathan Trott: Wouldn't make the cut if England were to go with a 5 bowlers but I expect them to try and scrape through with only 4 and 7 frontline batters. After exploding into international cricket with a century in the final Ashes Test, has failed to impress with a mixture of starts and odd dismissals which have failed to distract from his poor fielding, including dropping a sitter in the last Test. However, England will persevere with him for several reasons, not least the lack of an obvious alternative at the moment. Will be hoping the openers can take the pressure off him.

Kevin Pieterson: Rediscovered some form with the bat in Bangladesh but needs both regular cricket and to stay fit in order to pose the same threat to Australia as he did in 2005. Along with Strauss and Collingwood he will still be seen as a vital wicket, but will be looking to make match winning contributions more frequently. Much of England's chances rest on his shoulders.

Paul Collingwood: The grafter is one of the first names on the team sheet, boasting as he does the mental grit which many of his peers are criticised for lacking. One of the few players to emerge from the last tour with any credit and can be relied on to perform under pressure. Gives his captain an option with the ball which will be needed more than ever if England are to persist with 4 front line bowlers.

Ian Bell: Has appeared to be a changed man since his return to the England lineup in South Africa. Clearly enjoys batting at 6 far more than he did at 3 and appears to have used his time on the sidelines to address mental weaknesses. The criticism of being unable to bat under pressure seems to be increasingly null and void, with good performances as England teetered in South Africa and in Bangladesh. If he can maintain his current form he could contribute to the large totals England will need with only 4 frontline bowlers.

Matt Prior: Although he has come under increasing pressure from Craig Kieswetter in the shorter forms of the game, I expect him to hold on to gloves for at least another year. He has undoubtedly improved behind the stumps since coming into the England setup, but will be disappointed with his glovework in Bangladesh and will no doubt be aware that it will be this area of his game that will be under most scrutiny in the upcoming months as his batting remains easily strong enough for a Test no.7, and he has strong batting to follow him in Broad and Swann.

Stuart Broad: Although aspects of his temperament continue to frustrate, Broad shows flickers of brilliance and can produce the sort of match winning spells that England will need if they are to win matches with only 4 bowlers. His batting is hit or miss, but the combination of him and Swann at 8 and 9 mean England have a very short tail. For a bit man he is a gifted fielder and his safe hands in the deep are vital for all the bowlers.

Graeme Swann: England's star man of the last 18 months, Swann's mastery of finger spin make him a threat on even the most docile of surfaces. Despite the talents of Anderson and Broad, for most he is the key bowler for England, and without him claiming 7 or more wickets in a Test it is difficult to see how England possess the firepower to take the 20 required to win a Test match in Australia.

James Anderson: Without Flintoff he is the spearhead of the attack and must make inroads with the new ball. Will want to be more effective when the ball isn't swinging and will flourish on some wickets here and struggle on others unless he develops something other than swing. That said, when the conditions are right he is nigh on unplayable and if he can get it right on the those pitches conducive to aerial movement then he may be able to give England a position in the series that they can hold on to.

Liam Plunkett: Every selection has a wildcard and this is mine. Onions is struggling with a back injury and, although it hardly seems fair that he should be omitted because of it, he seems to be an unlucky bowler at international level. While Swann has the knack of taking a wicket in his first over, Onions seems to have the knack of bowling great deliveries that don't take wickets. Bresnan is a workhorse but will not win Test matches with the ball and Sidebottom is also a fitness worry, and you can't afford a question mark over fitness when the captain already has so few people to throw the ball too. As a result, Plunkett gets my nod. He is a proven performer who has improved beyond measure since he last played for England. He adds depth to both the batting and fielding lineups. The only thing that counts against him is the strength in depth at Durham, who boast such seam bowling riches that nobody up there is guaranteed to start.

So there you have it. In my mind certainly 2, and possibly 3 are up for debate. Trott needs to return to no.3 and impress there and the fourth bowler is there to be claimed. The other question mark hangs over Prior, who will be hoping that his glove work returns to the levels shown in South Africa.