Sunday 11 April 2010

2010 Ashes Predictions (Part 2)

In part 2 of this article, I’ll be turning my attention to the Australians, who despite their recent successes over a Pakistan team which exists in perpetual turmoil have a few selection headaches of their own in the bowling department and are looking for a fresh spearhead since the retirement of Brett Lee.


Shane Watson: Although Phil Hughes announced himself with a bang in South Africa before the Ashes last year, since replacing him Watson has barely put a foot wrong. In many ways he is a natural replacement for Hayden; a bully of an opener, who enjoys hitting straight past the bowler and pulling off the front foot. A trademark of that decade of Aussie dominance was that they regularly scored at over 4 an over and Watson gives them impetus at the start as well as an added option with the ball, although injury has made him less able to contribute in this area.


Simon Katich: After a torrid 2005 in the middle order he remodeled himself as an opener and has been a lynchpin in the Australian side since his return. His recent gritty innings have highlighted his mental toughness and he is a batsman who rarely gifts his wicket away. He is the perfect foil to his partner, happy to play Langer to Watson’s Hayden and England must look to dismiss him early because once settled he will dig in for the long haul.


Ricky Ponting: If anything the retirement of so many around him seems to have made him hungrier. After losing another series in England he will be looking for his side come out with all the fight they showed in 2006/7 and he will be at the heart of everything. Still impressive with the bat and electric in the field, he is one of those players who never seems to drift in a game. Questions still remain over his captaincy; years of being able to throw the ball to McGrath and Warne mean that he isn’t as tactically astute as other captains with similar experience may be, but make no mistake, he will be fired up and dangerous. England will be hoping the ball swings early in his innings as he remains prone to falling over and being trapped LBW.


Michael Clarke: Recent trouble in his personal life hasn’t distracted him, and he was named man of the match in the first Test against New Zealand after a splendid century. Many wouldn’t have played in his circumstances, let alone performed to that level and the fact that he did tells you everything you need to know about this world class performer. He was a thorn in England’s side last year and nobody would be shocked if he was again.


Michael Hussey: Mr Cricket completes the experienced 3, 4, 5 that England must dismiss cheaply if they are to win Test matches, and he mirrors his fellow no.5 Paul Collingwood for mental steel. He loves to beat England and he has regained his form after a shakey start to the 2009 Ashes. He loves a personal battle as well as a team one, and having struggled against Swann in England will be looking to redress the balance in front of fans who adore his passion for the sport.


Marcus North: With so many stellar names ahead of him, North is almost a forgotten man overseas, but in Australia they recognise his value. He not only boasts a fine average with the bat, but along with Michael Clarke provides more than adequate backup spin should Hauritz be unselected or ineffective and he is a stunning gully fielder.


Brad Haddin: When Adam Gilchrist retired, many expected Australia to chop and change their wicket keepers, but Haddin had waited so long he clearly didn’t want to miss the opportunity and has retained the position as long as he has been fit. With his lightening hands and aggressive batting it is easy to see why, and the only question mark is over his fingers. He has broken 3 in the last year, which is a shock given how cleanly he takes the ball.


Mitchell Johnson: The smiling assassin struggled initially in England, but was still at the top end of the wicket taking statistics come the end of the series. His slinging action will always be somewhat scattergun, but he is capable of producing wicket taking deliveries in the middle of woeful spells, and his slower ball is a constant danger. In addition, if England’s bowlers have had to toil agains the top order and allow themselves mental or physical lapses, then his aggressive batting can quickly alter the complexion of a game.


Nathan Hauritz: Hauritz has taken his time adapting to international cricket, but seems now to understand his role with both bat and ball and weighed in heavily with both against Pakistan. There is a chance that his duel with Kevin Pieterson, whose recent troubles with left-arm spinners has been well documented could be the pick of the series, with both fancying their chances against the other.


Ben Hilfenhaus: Hilfenhaus was a revelation in the 2009 Ashes. Despite his size and obvious power and strength, it was his precision and accuracy that ensured his possession of the new ball when Mitchell Johnson’s radar went haywire. He took 4 for 16 on his return for Tasmania but aggravated a knee injury which he has been battling with. If fit, his consistency of line and length make him the nearest replacement Australia have to Glenn McGrath; not only a wicket taker in his own right, but a dream for the bowler at the other end in virtue of how much pressure he applies with economical figures.


Doug Bollinger: As with England, this spot is something of a head-scratcher for the Australian selectors. Since Brett Lee’s sad retirement through injury they need a new spearhead. Five years ago that looked like being Shaun Tait, but mental frailties put his career on hold, and although he is back in the one day lineup it is unlikely he would be risked in a Test series where so much is at stake. Although Peter Siddle can still be called upon, Bollinger has impressed in a variety of conditions since being called up in January 2009. He took his first ODI five wicket haul in tough conditions on the tour of India, and excelled in all formats against both Pakistan and in the recent series against New Zealand. Although they already have a prominent left armer in Johnson, Bollinger is a different proposition, more inclined to kiss the turf than go for the jugular. From an English point of view, Graeme Swann will be hoping that he does play, with the additional rough created by two left armers sure to aid him against right handed batsman.

It seems fair to say that for both selection committees it is the bowling department that causes the greatest worry. That said I would rather be in the Australian camp. They can be relatively safe in the knowledge that any combination of Johnson, Bollinger, Hilfenhaus, Siddle and Watson has the ability to cause England problems, and with Tait and Clint McKay on the sidelines they boast a strength in depth of talent and experience in this department that England can only currently dream of. Australia’s ability to replace first choice seam in cases of injury or form loss may well play a vital role in the outcome of the series.


With all this in mind I expect Australia to win the series 3-1. Watch this space.

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