Unless you have been around for a goodly time longer than I have there are certain things one has come to expect from our little island when it comes to international sport. Every four years the footballers will talk a much better game than they produce, a plucky Brit will reach the semi finals of Wimbledon and then implode, and under no circumstances will an Ashes tour Down Under result in anything other than the handing over of the famous urn to the old enemy.
However, after contrasting summer successes the general thinking is that England not only have a good chance of winning the Test series, they are favourites over Australia in all three formats off the back of their recent victory in the T20 World Cup.
The Australian media have already set about promoting their team as underdogs in order to transfer pressure from Ponting’s team to Strauss’s men, but sifting through the meaningless mutterings you can find an occasional stat or quote which explains exactly why Australia are so concerned.
The stand out fact is that the current Australia squad comprises of individuals who simply do not know how to beat England. With the exception of the captain, all have lost more than they have won, and many have tasted nothing but defeat. Contrast this with the last tour four years ago, when a team of veterans, fresh from the gut wrenching loss in that great 2005 series utilised that pain and their experience to dish out a humiliating 5-0 drubbing. Ponting can no longer turn to players who know about the pressure, who have time and again outfoxed the same opponents and it is the experience of Warne, Hayden, Glichrist and McGrath he will miss this year as much as the talent.
In addition to having weaker weapons at his disposal, Ponting is also going through a crisis unlike any that he has endured since being given the captaincy. Having led Australia to three consecutive losses, the captain has also struggled with the bat and is now facing a (much overhyped but none-the-less hurtful) media witch hunt about his captaincy, after an outburst by former team mate Warne on Twitter over his field placings for spinner Nathan Hauritz. He has admitted that failure in this series would almost certainly end his reign as skipper.
And ultimately this is the real difference between now and the last Ashes tour. Australia are, for the first time in a long time contemplating failure. In the glory days it just wasn’t a word they used, not even a thought they entertained, yet before a ball has been bowled it is being talked of and by the captain no less.
This doesn’t mean for one instance that the series will be an easy one for England. This will be attritional, energy sapping and mentally exhausting cricket of the finest quality and Ponting will squeeze every drop of sweat from his players before they concede a single match. What it does show is that England have a chance, and it isn’t just media hype, it isn’t mere hyperbole, all of Australia knows it. Their current situation brings to mind a quote from the BBC’s Phil McNulty about Fabio Capello’s side; “they need to come to terms with the fact that they are no longer at the top table of world competition [...] and they won’t be there for a long time either.” It is an ugly truth for a team that not only sat at the top table, but had the head of it for so long.
In years past, any mental pressure would get the best from one of those great Australian players of the past decade. Playing mind games with them was something you did at your own peril. This tour is the first in decades where there is some mental fragility for England to put pressure on. In 2006/07 they came up against a wounded animal, eager to reset the status quo. This time, England face something more akin to a puppy; still very talented, still boisterous, still eager for victory, but without the experience or knowledge of how to achieve it’s goal. With the teams almost impossible to separate on paper, the key to the series will be whether Ponting’s inexperienced team are hindered by all this knowledge, or inspired to stunning individual and team performances as previous colleagues would have been.
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